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9

Fascination

4yo Filly · 9-8 · OR 65

Greyville · Gallop TV Class 5 (F & M) · 4f 214y

#2

Rank

Odds

3/1

Win Prob

35%

Place Prob

34%

Rank

#2

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Twelve runs since last win in 2025. Good second of 10 in handicap at this C&D (soft, 5/2) 35 days ago. Not taken lightly.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength59%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 5.1)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.3
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Greyville 28/12/2025 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR - · 5f212y Sft 120 · HIGHER CLASS28/124C5 @ Scottsville 25/01/2026 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR - · 5f212y GS 116 · HIGHER CLASS4 @ Scottsville 18/02/2026 · Pos 12th of 15 · OR - · 4f214y GS 125 · HIGHER CLASS18/0244 @ Scottsville 26/04/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR - · 5f103y Sft 126 · HIGHER CLASS4 @ Scottsville 17/05/2026 · Pos 11th of 13 · OR - · 4f214y Gd 126 · HIGHER CLASS17/0545 @ Scottsville 08/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 14 · OR - · 5f212y Gd 1345 @ Scottsville 22/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 15 · OR - · 5f212y Gd 13122/0754 @ Scottsville 09/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR - · 4f214y Gd 119 · HIGHER CLASS4 @ Greyville 28/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR - · 4f214y Hvy 121 · HIGHER CLASS28/084projClass-projected finish: 1st of 9
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-28Greyville42nd1st+1
2026-08-09Scottsville42nd1st+1
2026-07-22Scottsville52nd2nd0
2026-07-08Scottsville56th6th0
2026-05-17Scottsville411th10th+1
2026-04-26Scottsville47th6th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today28/1226/0422/0728/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 9100% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +4.3% per run

What the projection says

Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 9. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
28/12/20252nd8/158%88%+0.30
25/01/20267th17/255%45%-0.10
18/02/202612th7/163%21%-0.42
26/04/20267th33/10%25%+0.25
17/05/202611th22/10%17%+0.17
08/07/20266th28/10%62%+0.62
22/07/20262nd12/137%93%+0.56
09/08/20262nd9/153%90%+0.37
28/08/20262nd9/488%89%+0.01