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7

De Vlugge

5yo Mare · 9-6 · OR 75

Greyville · Join The Passion! www.racecoast.co.za Middle Stakes (F & M) · 5f 212y

#3

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

7%

Place Prob

15%

Rank

#3

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Course winner. Six wins from 17 Flat runs. 4 wins from 7 runs this year. Latest win here in May. Bit below form sixth of 10 in minor event at Greyville (7f, AW, 5/1) 42 days ago.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength67%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Finished in the top 3 in 4 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.9 /10 (raw 3.6)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.0
Today:
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Greyville 07/11/2025 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR - · 7f210y Gd 1337/1155 @ Greyville 05/12/2025 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR - · 7f210y Gd 1374 @ Scottsville 11/01/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR - · 7f210y GS 126 · HIGHER CLASS11/0144 @ Greyville 06/02/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR - · 6f211y Std 126 · HIGHER CLASS4 @ Greyville 27/02/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR - · 6f211y Std 130 · HIGHER CLASS27/0244 @ Greyville 17/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR - · 5f212y Std 136 · HIGHER CLASS3 @ Greyville 30/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR - · 6f211y Std 122 · HIGHER CLASS30/053C5 @ Scottsville 19/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR - · 6f211y Gd 132C5 @ Greyville 21/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR - · 6f211y Std 12721/08C5projClass-projected finish: 4th of 9
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-21Greyville?6th6th0
2026-07-19Scottsville?4th4th0
2026-05-30Greyville31st-1th+2
2026-04-17Greyville41st0th+1
2026-02-27Greyville41st0th+1
2026-02-06Greyville41st0th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today7/116/0230/0521/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 963% of fieldRange 3-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength53%

Delivery trend -6.7% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 9. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
07/11/20251st10/147%100%+0.53
05/12/20252nd4/179%89%+0.10
11/01/20263rd3/184%78%-0.06
06/02/20261st9/276%100%+0.24
27/02/20261st3/184%100%+0.16
17/04/20261st7/282%100%+0.18
30/05/20261st7/491%100%+0.09
19/07/20264th3/184%57%-0.27
21/08/20266th11/271%44%-0.27