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4

Happy Fortune

5yo Mare · 9-0 · OR 50

Greyville · Join The Passion! www.racecoast.co.za Middle Stakes (F & M) · 5f 212y

#6

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#6

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Course winner. 3 wins from 7 runs this year. Latest win here in May. Eighth of 10 in minor event at Greyville (6f, AW, 14/1) 28 days ago. Looks competitive on form.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼1
Strength61%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 4.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C3.6
Today:
Class gap: +0.9
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Greyville 09/12/2025 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR - · 6f211y Std 127 · HIGHER CLASS9/1244 @ Greyville 26/12/2025 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR - · 7f210y Gd 129 · HIGHER CLASS4 @ Greyville 18/01/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR - · 6f211y Gd 128 · HIGHER CLASS18/0144 @ Greyville 06/02/2026 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR - · 6f211y Std 130 · HIGHER CLASS4 @ Greyville 03/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR - · 6f211y Std 132 · HIGHER CLASS3/0444 @ Greyville 09/05/2026 · Pos 9th of 11 · OR - · 6f211y Gd 134 · HIGHER CLASS4 @ Greyville 27/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR - · 6f211y Std 134 · HIGHER CLASS27/054C1 @ Greyville 07/08/2026 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR - · 7f210y GS 129 · HIGHER CLASSC5 @ Greyville 04/09/2026 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR - · 5f212y GS 1264/09C5projClass-projected finish: 5th of 9
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-04Greyville?8th8th0
2026-08-07Greyville?8th4th+4
2026-05-27Greyville41st0th+1
2026-05-09Greyville49th8th+1
2026-04-03Greyville41st0th+1
2026-02-06Greyville47th6th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today9/126/0227/054/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 925% of fieldRange 5-9 · 68%
▬ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength2%

Delivery trend +0.7% per run

What the projection says

Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 7th of 9.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
09/12/20252nd15/261%88%+0.27
26/12/20253rd3/184%71%-0.13
18/01/20261st13/891%100%+0.09
06/02/20267th11/486%0%-0.86
03/04/20261st11/271%100%+0.29
09/05/20269th14/126%20%-0.06
27/05/20261st4/179%100%+0.21
07/08/20268th18/15%13%+0.07
04/09/20268th14/126%22%-0.04