9
Light Of Gabriel
4yo Filly · 9-0 · OR 67
Greyville · Join The Passion! www.racecoast.co.za Middle Stakes (F & M) · 5f 212y
#7
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#7
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼1
Strength64%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 4.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C3.6
Today:
Class gap: +0.9
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29 | Scottsville | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-05-13 | Greyville | 4 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-03-27 | Greyville | ? | 9th | 4th | +4 |
| 2026-01-25 | Scottsville | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-12-28 | Greyville | 4 | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2025-11-18 | Greyville | 4 | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 938% of fieldRange 5-8 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength30%
Delivery trend -1.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/09/2025 | 3rd | 8/13 | 97% | 80% | -0.17 |
| 03/10/2025 | 1st | 5/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 22/10/2025 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 67% | -0.20 |
| 18/11/2025 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 86% | -0.01 |
| 28/12/2025 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 25/01/2026 | 6th | 11/4 | 86% | 55% | -0.31 |
| 27/03/2026 | 9th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 13/05/2026 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 67% | +0.04 |
| 29/07/2026 | 8th | 9/1 | 53% | 13% | -0.40 |