3
Ubukhwebezana
6yo Mare · 9-3 · OR 53
Greyville · Join The Passion! www.racecoast.co.za Middle Stakes (F & M) · 5f 212y
#5
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength22%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.2 /10 (raw 5.2)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.4
Today:
Class gap: +0.1
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Greyville | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-08-07 | Greyville | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-13 | Greyville | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-04-11 | Greyville | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-03-29 | Greyville | 4 | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-02-18 | Scottsville | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 950% of fieldRange 4-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength17%
Delivery trend -1.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/08/2025 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 17/09/2025 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 02/01/2026 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 43% | -0.31 |
| 18/02/2026 | 10th | 11/1 | 42% | 18% | -0.24 |
| 29/03/2026 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 11/04/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 71% | -0.02 |
| 13/05/2026 | 8th | 7/2 | 82% | 0% | -0.82 |
| 07/08/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 04/09/2026 | 9th | 20/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |