12
Grand Appeal
5yo Gelding · 9-1 · OR 67
Greyville · Hollywoodbets Bright Future Class 4 · 5f 212y
#9
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#9
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength23%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.
Class-adjusted form 5.1 /10 (raw 5.4)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.3
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-20 | Greyville | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-28 | Greyville | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-08-14 | Greyville | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-05-30 | Greyville | 4 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-05-13 | Greyville | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-29 | Scottsville | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 129% of fieldRange 8-12 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -3.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 11th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/01/2026 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 50% | -0.34 |
| 22/03/2026 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 92% | +0.26 |
| 11/04/2026 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 69% | +0.09 |
| 29/04/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 70% | -0.09 |
| 13/05/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 88% | +0.09 |
| 30/05/2026 | 10th | 13/2 | 66% | 10% | -0.56 |
| 14/08/2026 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 17% | -0.60 |
| 28/08/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 88% | -0.01 |
| 20/09/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 33% | -0.14 |