4
Mystical Miss
4yo Filly · 9-6 · OR 72
Greyville · Hollywoodbets Bright Future Class 4 · 5f 212y
#5
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
5%
Place Prob
10%
Rank
#5
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▲2
Strength3%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.4 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.8
Today: 4
Class gap: -1.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-16 | Turffontein | ? | 2nd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-06-18 | Vaal | ? | 4th | 6th | −2 |
| 2026-05-28 | Vaal | ? | 3rd | 6th | −2 |
| 2026-05-14 | Vaal | ? | 6th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-03-28 | Vaal | ? | 3rd | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-02-24 | Vaal | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1282% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +9.5% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/11/2025 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 43% | -0.10 |
| 23/12/2025 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 56% | -0.05 |
| 14/01/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 20% | -0.59 |
| 24/02/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 86% | +0.12 |
| 28/03/2026 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 60% | -0.29 |
| 14/05/2026 | 6th | 11/4 | 86% | 17% | -0.69 |
| 28/05/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 78% | -0.01 |
| 18/06/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 63% | +0.63 |
| 16/07/2026 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 89% | +0.73 |