Frida
4yo Filly · 8-13 · OR 79
Gulfstream · Race 2 - Claiming · 6f 110y
#1
Rank
Odds
9/5
Win Prob
38%
Place Prob
41%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 4 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 7 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 4.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | Gulfstream | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-30 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-01-10 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 9th | 6th | +3 |
| 2025-10-24 | Gulfstream | ? | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2025-03-30 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 6th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2025-03-01 | Gulfstream | ? | 5th | -3th | +7 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -5.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/06/2024 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 80% | -0.04 |
| 03/01/2025 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 01/02/2025 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 01/03/2025 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 30/03/2025 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 0% | -0.76 |
| 24/10/2025 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 67% | +0.01 |
| 10/01/2026 | 9th | 12/1 | 37% | 11% | -0.26 |
| 30/05/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 78% | -0.06 |
| 23/08/2026 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 50% | -0.34 |