6
R Firebird
5yo Mare · 8-11 · OR 61
Gulfstream · Race 2 - Claiming · 6f 110y
#6
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength8%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Gulfstream | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-08-09 | Gulfstream | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-12 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-21 | Gulfstream | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-10 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-12 | Gulfstream | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 60% of fieldRange 2-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength32%
Delivery trend -2.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/01/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |
| 05/03/2026 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 27/03/2026 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 40% | -0.21 |
| 12/04/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 40% | -0.39 |
| 10/05/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 80% | +0.33 |
| 21/06/2026 | 6th | 8/1 | 58% | 17% | -0.41 |
| 12/07/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 50% | -0.21 |
| 09/08/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 57% | +0.05 |
| 29/08/2026 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |