Role Play
3yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 88
Gulfstream · Race 2 - Claiming · 6f 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 2 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 3.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-03 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-11 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-12 | Gulfstream | ? | 9th | 8th | +1 |
| 2026-05-15 | Gulfstream | ? | 8th | 5th | +3 |
| 2026-04-23 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +1.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/01/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 90% | +0.04 |
| 26/02/2026 | 5th | 6/4 | 92% | 33% | -0.59 |
| 26/03/2026 | 3rd | 8/15 | 97% | 50% | -0.47 |
| 23/04/2026 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 15/05/2026 | 8th | 6/1 | 68% | 0% | -0.68 |
| 12/06/2026 | 9th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |
| 11/07/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 88% | +0.03 |
| 03/08/2026 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 83% | -0.06 |
| 13/09/2026 | 2nd | 10/11 | 95% | 75% | -0.20 |