2
D Orbie's Girl
3yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 55
Gulfstream · Race 4 - Maiden Claiming · 1m
#4
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-21 | Gulfstream | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-04-26 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-12 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-03-20 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-03-01 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-02-08 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 640% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength77%
Delivery trend -4.0% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/12/2025 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 40% | -0.13 |
| 02/01/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 21/01/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 80% | +0.27 |
| 08/02/2026 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 01/03/2026 | 6th | 40/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 20/03/2026 | 8th | 20/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 12/04/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 83% | +0.36 |
| 26/04/2026 | 2nd | 6/4 | 92% | 75% | -0.17 |
| 21/06/2026 | 9th | 14/1 | 26% | 11% | -0.15 |