1
Claimed
4yo Filly · 9-0 · OR 80
Gulfstream · Race 5 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m
#5
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 3.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-13 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2025-03-21 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-02-05 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-01-05 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2024-10-19 | Gulfstream | ? | 5th | 7th | −2 |
| 2024-09-21 | Gulfstream | ? | 9th | 11th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 975% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength92%
Delivery trend -0.6% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/09/2024 | 9th | 33/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 19/10/2024 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 05/01/2025 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |
| 05/02/2025 | 1st | 10/1 | 47% | 100% | +0.53 |
| 21/03/2025 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 67% | -0.07 |
| 13/06/2025 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 80% | +0.27 |