Eileen's A Warrior

3yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 81

Gulfstream · Race 5 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m

Rank

Odds

9/2

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▬

Strength25%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 0 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 3.9)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.7

Today:

Class gap: -0.2

Higher-class runs: 2

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-09-04	Colonial Downs	?	9th	7th	+2	2.8
2026-08-21	Colonial Downs	?	1st	2nd	−1	7.8
2026-08-06	Colonial Downs	?	5th	6th	−1	3.8
2026-06-27	Colonial Downs	?	4th	5th	−1	4.8
2026-04-16	Gulfstream	?	5th	5th	0	5.0
2026-03-12	Colonial Downs	?	1st	0th	+1	9.6

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish8th of 913% of fieldRange 2-9 · 68%

▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price

Trend▼

Strength40%

Delivery trend -7.0% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 9. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
08/01/2026	2nd	12/1	37%	83%	+0.46
12/03/2026	1st	5/2	87%	100%	+0.13
16/04/2026	5th	9/4	88%	33%	-0.55
27/06/2026	4th	5/2	87%	63%	-0.24
06/08/2026	5th	11/2	71%	50%	-0.21
21/08/2026	1st	6/4	92%	100%	+0.08
04/09/2026	9th	14/1	26%	0%	-0.26