Fluffy
5yo Mare · 9-0 · OR 77
Gulfstream · Race 5 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m
#9
Rank
Odds
30/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 4.1)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-09 | Colonial Downs | ? | 9th | 7th | +2 |
| 2026-07-31 | Colonial Downs | ? | 8th | 6th | +2 |
| 2026-07-11 | Colonial Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-26 | Colonial Downs | ? | 6th | 4th | +2 |
| 2026-04-03 | Gulfstream | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-03-13 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +1.6% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 9th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/11/2025 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 20% | +0.04 |
| 27/11/2025 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 05/02/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 13/03/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 33% | -0.35 |
| 03/04/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 26/06/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 11/07/2026 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |
| 31/07/2026 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 09/08/2026 | 9th | 50/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |