4
Tell Me Some Lies
5yo Mare · 9-0 · OR 87
Gulfstream · Race 5 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m
#2
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
9%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength4%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.1 /10 (raw 3.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.6
Today:
Class gap: -0.1
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | Colonial Downs | ? | 3rd | 1st | +2 |
| 2026-08-07 | Colonial Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-06 | Colonial Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-19 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-03-21 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-02-21 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 9100% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength81%
Delivery trend -1.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/11/2025 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 25% | -0.01 |
| 12/12/2025 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 89% | +0.02 |
| 17/01/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 80% | +0.06 |
| 21/02/2026 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 91% | +0.33 |
| 21/03/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 86% | +0.07 |
| 19/04/2026 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 29% | -0.50 |
| 06/07/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 57% | +0.10 |
| 07/08/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 30/08/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 67% | -0.18 |