Bert's Knoty Girl
3yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 90
Gulfstream · Race 7 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m
#2
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
7%
Place Prob
15%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 5.1)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | 1st | +2 |
| 2026-07-04 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-03-07 | Gulfstream | ? | 11th | 10th | +1 |
| 2026-01-31 | Gulfstream | BHA88 | 7th | 10th | −2 |
| 2026-01-03 | Gulfstream | ? | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2025-10-22 | Keeneland | ? | 10th | 8th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +6.0% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08/2025 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 67% | +0.04 |
| 06/09/2025 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 27/09/2025 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 22/10/2025 | 10th | 25/1 | 0% | 10% | +0.10 |
| 03/01/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 20% | -0.06 |
| 31/01/2026 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 07/03/2026 | 11th | 25/1 | 0% | 9% | +0.09 |
| 04/07/2026 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 67% | +0.01 |
| 22/08/2026 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |