IvyArcIvyArc
6

Great Actress

3yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 76

Gulfstream · Race 7 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m

#3

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

6%

Place Prob

14%

Rank

#3

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.9 /10 (raw 4.4)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.8
Today:
Class gap: -1.3
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC7 @ Belmont At The Big A 01/11/2025 · Pos 9th of 12 · OR 73 · 6f Fm 119 · below its mark01/11/2025 · OR 73 par1/11C7OR 73C9 @ Tampa Bay Downs 19/11/2025 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 76 · 5f110y 119 · below its mark19/11/2025 · OR 76 parC9 @ Tampa Bay Downs 07/01/2026 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 74 · 7f Fas 119 · below its mark07/01/2026 · OR 74 par7/01C9OR 74C9 @ Tampa Bay Downs 30/01/2026 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 67 · 1m Fm 119 · below its mark30/01/2026 · OR 67 parC9 @ Tampa Bay Downs 15/02/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 62 · 1m Fm 119 · beat its mark15/02/2026 · OR 62 par15/02C9OR 62C8 @ Gulfstream 17/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 62 · 1m110y Fas 121 · below its mark17/05/2026 · OR 62 parC8 @ Gulfstream 13/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 69 · 1m110y 121 · below its mark13/06/2026 · OR 69 par13/06C8OR 69C8 @ Gulfstream 11/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 73 · 1m110y Fm 122 · below its mark11/07/2026 · OR 73 parC8 @ Gulfstream 03/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 74 · 1m 122 · beat its mark03/08/2026 · OR 74 par3/08C8OR 74projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-03Gulfstream?1st2nd−1
2026-07-11Gulfstream?3rd4th−1
2026-06-13Gulfstream?3rd4th−1
2026-05-17Gulfstream?4th5th−1
2026-02-15Tampa Bay Downs?1st3rd−2
2026-01-30Tampa Bay Downs?8th10th−2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today1/1130/0113/063/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 750% of fieldRange 2-6 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength50%

Delivery trend +3.9% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 7. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
01/11/20259th16/116%27%+0.11
19/11/20254th4/179%73%-0.06
07/01/20268th12/137%0%-0.37
30/01/20268th11/486%13%-0.73
15/02/20261st7/282%100%+0.18
17/05/20264th9/153%63%+0.10
13/06/20263rd3/184%71%-0.13
11/07/20263rd5/174%75%+0.01
03/08/20261st6/168%100%+0.32