Rogue Runner

3yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 90

Gulfstream · Race 7 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m

Rank

Odds

3/1

Win Prob

82%

Place Prob

52%

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▼1

Strength47%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.2 /10 (raw 3.6)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C5.6

Today:

Class gap: +0.9

Higher-class runs: 4

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-09-06	Gulfstream	?	3rd	2nd	+1	8.2
2026-08-16	Gulfstream	?	2nd	0th	+2	9.8
2026-07-04	Gulfstream	?	6th	6th	0	4.0
2026-06-12	Gulfstream	?	2nd	0th	+2	9.8
2026-05-15	Gulfstream	?	5th	3rd	+2	6.8
2026-04-24	Gulfstream	?	2nd	2nd	0	8.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish2nd of 783% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%

▲ EDGING AHEADconfirms a short-priced top pick

Trend▬

Strength78%

Delivery trend -0.3% per run

What the projection says

Edging ahead of its price, confirming the short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 7.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
30/01/2026	6th	9/1	53%	44%	-0.08
27/03/2026	1st	9/1	53%	100%	+0.47
10/04/2026	6th	15/8	90%	17%	-0.73
24/04/2026	2nd	11/2	71%	83%	+0.12
15/05/2026	5th	11/2	71%	43%	-0.28
12/06/2026	2nd	16/1	16%	83%	+0.68
04/07/2026	6th	3/1	84%	17%	-0.68
16/08/2026	2nd	5/1	74%	88%	+0.14
06/09/2026	3rd	11/2	71%	67%	-0.04