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5

Final Payment

4yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 94

Gulfstream · Race 8 - Starter Optional Claiming · 5f 110y

#2

Rank

Odds

9/2

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

7%

Rank

#2

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength32%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 2 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.8 /10 (raw 2.6)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Gulfstream 15/02/2026 · Pos 4th of 5 · OR 67 · 7f Fas 123 · below its mark15/02/2026 · OR 67 par15/02C8OR 67C8 @ Gulfstream 08/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 69 · 7f Fas 123 · below its mark08/03/2026 · OR 69 parC8 @ Gulfstream 26/03/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 67 · 6f Fas 126 · beat its mark26/03/2026 · OR 67 par26/03C8OR 67C8 @ Gulfstream 11/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 75 · 6f Fas 123 · beat its mark11/04/2026 · OR 75 parC8 @ Gulfstream 03/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 75 · 6f110y Slo 126 · beat its mark03/05/2026 · OR 75 par3/05C8OR 75C5 @ Gulfstream 23/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 77 · 6f 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark23/05/2026 · OR 77 parC7 @ Gulfstream 11/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 80 · 1m Gd 122 · below its mark11/07/2026 · OR 80 par11/07C7OR 80C5 @ Gulfstream 15/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 77 · 7f 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark15/08/2026 · OR 77 parC8 @ Gulfstream 12/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 86 · 6f Gd 125 · beat its mark12/09/2026 · OR 86 par12/09C8OR 86projClass-projected finish: 1st of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-12Gulfstream?1st2nd−1
2026-08-15Gulfstream?3rd1st+2
2026-07-11Gulfstream?2nd2nd0
2026-05-23Gulfstream?3rd1st+2
2026-05-03Gulfstream?1st2nd−1
2026-04-11Gulfstream?1st2nd−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today15/0211/0411/0712/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 767% of fieldRange 2-4 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength62%

Delivery trend -3.8% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 7. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
15/02/20264th16/116%25%+0.09
08/03/20262nd9/153%89%+0.36
26/03/20261st2/189%100%+0.11
11/04/20261st9/488%100%+0.12
03/05/20261st10/1195%100%+0.05
23/05/20263rd4/179%60%-0.19
11/07/20262nd9/276%75%-0.01
15/08/20263rd5/287%71%-0.15
12/09/20261st4/596%100%+0.04