2
Proud American
4yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 81
Gulfstream · Race 8 - Starter Optional Claiming · 5f 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
6%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength16%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 3.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.0
Today:
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-03-21 | Gulfstream | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-02-21 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-01-29 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-01-04 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-12-14 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 783% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +5.4% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 2nd of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/09/2025 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 40% | -0.07 |
| 03/10/2025 | 9th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 21/11/2025 | 7th | 15/2 | 61% | 14% | -0.46 |
| 14/12/2025 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 86% | +0.28 |
| 04/01/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 29/01/2026 | 1st | 10/11 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 21/02/2026 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 21/03/2026 | 7th | 9/2 | 76% | 14% | -0.62 |
| 04/09/2026 | 1st | 16/1 | 16% | 100% | +0.84 |