6
Swaggish
6yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 98
Gulfstream · Race 8 - Starter Optional Claiming · 5f 110y
#7
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 3.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.0
Today:
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | Del Mar | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-07-30 | Del Mar | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-07-17 | Del Mar | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-06-13 | Gulfstream | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-24 | Gulfstream | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-04-10 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 70% of fieldRange 2-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength30%
Delivery trend -3.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/01/2026 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 82% | +0.24 |
| 31/01/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 70% | +0.33 |
| 21/02/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 10/04/2026 | 4th | 8/11 | 96% | 50% | -0.46 |
| 24/05/2026 | 7th | 13/2 | 66% | 14% | -0.52 |
| 13/06/2026 | 5th | 10/3 | 82% | 0% | -0.82 |
| 17/07/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 38% | +0.11 |
| 30/07/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 78% | +0.09 |
| 27/08/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 75% | -0.01 |