9
Flamefire
4yo Colt · 8-12 · OR 83
Gulfstream · Race 9 - Maiden Special Weight · 1m
#5
Rank
Odds
30/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
6%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 6.5 /10 (raw 6.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.1
Today:
Class gap: -2.1
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 | Gulfstream | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-22 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | 6th | −3 |
| 2026-08-02 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-07-26 | Gulfstream | ? | 7th | 10th | −3 |
| 2026-07-18 | Gulfstream | ? | 5th | 8th | −3 |
| 2026-05-02 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | 6th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1044% of fieldRange 4-9 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength43%
Delivery trend +2.4% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/02/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 22/02/2026 | 9th | 50/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 11/03/2026 | 9th | 50/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 02/05/2026 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 18/07/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 26/07/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 02/08/2026 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 80% | +0.64 |
| 22/08/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 71% | +0.56 |
| 13/09/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |