7
Valen Time
3yo Gelding · 8-8 · OR 83
Gulfstream · Race 9 - Maiden Special Weight · 1m
#1
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
30%
Place Prob
28%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength8%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 4.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.5
Today:
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-27 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-13 | Gulfstream | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-18 | Gulfstream | ? | 7th | 10th | −3 |
| 2026-01-03 | Gulfstream | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2025-11-22 | Gulfstream | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1067% of fieldRange 2-10 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength28%
Delivery trend +0.6% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/09/2025 | 3rd | 33/1 | 0% | 71% | +0.71 |
| 26/10/2025 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 14% | -0.38 |
| 22/11/2025 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 43% | -0.05 |
| 03/01/2026 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 0% | -0.74 |
| 18/04/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 13/06/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 27/07/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 75% | +0.04 |
| 31/08/2026 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 75% | +0.17 |