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2

Ebchester

5yo Gelding · 11-0

Hexham · David Clarke Memorial 'National Hunt' Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race) · 2m 48y

#4

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#4

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Ocovango gelding has finished fourth in bumpers at Kelso and here in early summer. Goes hurdling now after a break and needs to step forward in all likelihood.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 4.0)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 4
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Kelso 24/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR - · 2m51y Gd 15624/0544 @ Hexham 13/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR - · 2m48y Gd 15613/064projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 6
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-06-13Hexham44th4th0
2026-05-24Kelso44th4th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today24/0513/06
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 767% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +48.7% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 7. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
24/05/20264th12/137%40%+0.03
13/06/20264th18/15%57%+0.52