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4

Whin Cover

5yo Gelding · 11-0

Hexham · David Clarke Memorial 'National Hunt' Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race) · 2m 48y

#6

Rank

Odds

14/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#6

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Looked in need of the experience in 2 bumpers last year for Paul Collins. Off 14 months (had breathing operation) before taking a step forward for new yard with fifth of 10 in bumper at Worcester (2m, good) 40 days ago, despite going in snatches. No forlorn hope on his hurdles debut.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▲1
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.

Class-adjusted form 6.9 /10 (raw 5.7)

Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 4
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Uttoxeter 25/05/2025 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR - · 1m7f168y Goo 15025/0555 @ Uttoxeter 08/07/2025 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR - · 1m7f168y Gd 1528/0755 @ Worcester 23/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR - · 2m Gd 15623/085projClass-projected finish: 4th of 6
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-23Worcester55th6th−1
2025-07-08Uttoxeter55th6th−1
2025-05-25Uttoxeter57th8th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today25/058/0723/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 733% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength95%

Delivery trend +11.1% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 7. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
25/05/20257th33/10%33%+0.33
08/07/20255th25/10%50%+0.50
23/08/20265th40/10%56%+0.56