Bouboule
4yo Gelding · 11-2 · OR 80
Hexham · Martin Bowler Memorial Novices' Limited Handicap Hurdle · 2m 4f 28y
#5
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 8.7 /10 (raw 5.2)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Newcastle | 6 | 9th | 10th | −1 |
| 2026-06-21 | Hexham | 5 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-18 | Ripon | 6 | 11th | 12th | −1 |
| 2026-06-07 | Perth | 5 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-11 | Catterick | 6 | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-04-05 | Market Rasen | 5 | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -1.0% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/12/2025 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |
| 22/01/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 89% | +0.42 |
| 15/02/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 50% | +0.24 |
| 12/03/2026 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 14% | -0.33 |
| 11/05/2026 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 07/06/2026 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 45% | +0.45 |
| 18/06/2026 | 11th | 40/1 | 0% | 9% | +0.09 |
| 21/06/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 03/09/2026 | 9th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |