3
Knockeranna Rose
6yo Gelding · 11-2 · OR 78
Hexham · Martin Bowler Memorial Novices' Limited Handicap Hurdle · 2m 4f 28y
#4
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength15%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 5.2)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 5
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-21 | Hexham | 5 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-05-13 | Perth | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-24 | Perth | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-04 | Carlisle | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-03-19 | Sedgefield | 5 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-02-16 | Carlisle | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 733% of fieldRange 5-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength6%
Delivery trend -8.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/12/2025 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 29% | +0.13 |
| 29/12/2025 | 6th | 66/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 22/01/2026 | 8th | 66/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 16/02/2026 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 63% | +0.05 |
| 19/03/2026 | 8th | 8/1 | 58% | 30% | -0.28 |
| 04/04/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 71% | -0.02 |
| 24/04/2026 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 86% | +0.28 |
| 13/05/2026 | 4th | 5/2 | 87% | 57% | -0.30 |
| 21/06/2026 | 10th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |