Manhatane
4yo Filly · 11-0 · OR 78
Hexham · Martin Bowler Memorial Novices' Limited Handicap Hurdle · 2m 4f 28y
#7
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.1 /10 (raw 6.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-24 | Perth | 5 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-08-29 | Cartmel | 4 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-07-18 | Cartmel | 4 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-06-26 | Cartmel | 4 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +11.3% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 7th of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/06/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 18/07/2026 | 6th | 150/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 29/08/2026 | 6th | 100/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 24/09/2026 | 7th | 50/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |