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3

Banderas

6yo Gelding · 11-11 · OR 116

Hexham · Jewson Hexham Handicap Hurdle · 2m 48y

#4

Rank

Odds

9/4

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

7%

Rank

#4

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Strong-travelling type. Resumed progress over hurdles when winning a 2½m course handicap in May. Lost nothing in defeat on the Flat the following month. Still on a handy mark over hurdles, though this drop back in trip isn't certain to suit.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▲1
Strength34%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 4.6)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.8
Today: 3
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Doncaster 19/02/2025 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR - · 2m3f88y Goo 15919/0245 @ Wolverhampton 07/04/2025 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 70 · 1m5f219y Std 135 · beat its mark07/04/2025 · OR 70 par4 @ Hexham 03/05/2025 · Pos 3rd of 13 · OR - · 2m48y Goo 1583/0544 @ Southwell 09/06/2025 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR - · 2m4f88y Gd 1585 @ Carlisle 05/07/2025 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 70 · 2m1f47y Sft 149 · beat its mark05/07/2025 · OR 70 par5/075OR 702 @ Worcester 26/09/2025 · Pos 8th of 15 · OR 114 · 2m4f Gd 158 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark26/09/2025 · OR 114 par3 @ Hexham 02/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 112 · 2m48y Gd 156 · below its mark02/05/2026 · OR 112 par2/053OR 1124 @ Hexham 19/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 110 · 2m4f28y Goo 165 · beat its mark19/05/2026 · OR 110 par5 @ Carlisle 15/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR 73 · 1m6f32y Goo 133 · beat its mark15/06/2026 · OR 73 par15/065OR 73projClass-projected finish: 5th of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-06-15Carlisle55th7th−2
2026-05-19Hexham41st2nd−1
2026-05-02Hexham35th5th0
2025-09-26Worcester28th7th+1
2025-07-05Carlisle51st3rd−2
2025-06-09Southwell41st2nd−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today19/029/062/0515/06
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 767% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength96%

Delivery trend -1.3% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 7.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
19/02/20255th40/10%20%+0.20
07/04/20255th10/382%43%-0.40
03/05/20253rd16/116%83%+0.68
09/06/20251st9/276%100%+0.24
05/07/20251st9/488%100%+0.12
26/09/20258th28/10%50%+0.50
02/05/20265th9/153%20%-0.33
19/05/20261st11/142%100%+0.58
15/06/20265th2/189%60%-0.29