4
Double Digits
8yo Gelding · 11-9 · OR 114
Hexham · Jewson Hexham Handicap Hurdle · 2m 48y
#1
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
89%
Place Prob
60%
Rank
#1
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 3.0)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.8
Today: 3
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-24 | Kelso | 4 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-05-02 | Hexham | 3 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-11 | Newcastle | 4 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-02-19 | Sedgefield | 4 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-02-04 | Sedgefield | 4 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-12-26 | Sedgefield | 4 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 783% of fieldRange 2-5 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength57%
Delivery trend -1.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/04/2025 | 1st | 8/11 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 03/10/2025 | 2nd | 6/4 | 92% | 75% | -0.17 |
| 02/11/2025 | 7th | 5/1 | 74% | 50% | -0.24 |
| 26/12/2025 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 63% | -0.01 |
| 04/02/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 19/02/2026 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 67% | -0.24 |
| 11/04/2026 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 40% | -0.42 |
| 02/05/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 80% | -0.04 |
| 24/05/2026 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 86% | -0.05 |