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7

Kaikoura

6yo Gelding · 10-7 · OR 98

Hexham · Jewson Hexham Handicap Hurdle · 2m 48y

#7

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#7

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Maiden who finished third in back-to-back handicaps at Wexford for J. P. Dempsey last summer. Shaped quite well when beaten 8½ lengths in a solid Market Rasen handicap on stable debut/return in July. Interesting if building on that following further 12 weeks away.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲6
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 12.1 /10 (raw 6.4)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C8.7
Today: 3
Class gap: -5.7
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Clonmel 27/03/2025 · Pos 8th of 14 · OR - · 2m86y Goo 16627/03C?C0 @ Tramore 14/04/2025 · Pos 10th of 13 · OR - · 2m5f180y Yie 166BHA98 @ Wexford 17/05/2025 · Pos 6th of 14 · OR 98 · 2m1f Goo 166 · below its mark17/05/2025 · OR 98 par17/0598OR 98BHA96 @ Wexford 04/07/2025 · Pos 3rd of 14 · OR 96 · 2m1f55y Goo 164 · below its mark04/07/2025 · OR 96 parBHA96 @ Wexford 24/07/2025 · Pos 3rd of 14 · OR 96 · 2m150y Gd 164 · below its mark24/07/2025 · OR 96 par24/0796OR 96BHA96 @ Bellewstown 27/08/2025 · Pos 10th of 15 · OR 96 · 2m1f40y Gd 162 · below its mark27/08/2025 · OR 96 parBHA96 @ Gowran Park 04/10/2025 · Pos 7th of 14 · OR 96 · 2m4f50y Yie 164 · below its mark04/10/2025 · OR 96 par4/1096OR 96BHA96 @ Fairyhouse 11/10/2025 · Pos 5th of 16 · OR 96 · 2m Yie 164 · below its mark11/10/2025 · OR 96 par4 @ Market Rasen 05/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 100 · 2m125y Gd 158 · below its mark05/07/2026 · OR 100 par5/074OR 100projClass-projected finish: 7th of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-05Market Rasen44th5th−1
2025-10-11FairyhouseBHA965th13th−7
2025-10-04Gowran ParkBHA967th15th−7
2025-08-27BellewstownBHA9610th18th−7
2025-07-24WexfordBHA963rd11th−7
2025-07-04WexfordBHA963rd11th−7

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today27/034/074/105/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 70% of fieldRange 5-7 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength1%

Delivery trend -2.7% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 7th of 7. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
27/03/20258th28/10%46%+0.46
14/04/202510th125/10%25%+0.25
17/05/20256th12/137%62%+0.25
04/07/20253rd13/266%85%+0.19
24/07/20253rd11/271%85%+0.14
27/08/202510th9/276%36%-0.41
04/10/20257th7/163%54%-0.09
11/10/20255th13/266%73%+0.08
05/07/20264th28/10%50%+0.50