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5

Winds Of Winter

8yo Mare · 11-5 · OR 110

Hexham · Jewson Hexham Handicap Hurdle · 2m 48y

#2

Rank

Odds

7/2

Win Prob

5%

Place Prob

15%

Rank

#2

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Smooth-travelling mare who was thriving when successful over C&D last summer. Back in top form when narrowly denied a third Cartmel win in mid-July. Again contests a stronger contested than needed, however, should still be in the hunt if returning from 11 weeks away in similar heart.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength8%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 4.3)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.2
Today: 3
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Cartmel 28/05/2025 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 88 · 2m1f46y Goo 159 · beat its mark28/05/2025 · OR 88 par28/055OR 885 @ Hexham 14/06/2025 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 94 · 2m48y Goo 157 · beat its mark14/06/2025 · OR 94 par4 @ Perth 03/07/2025 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 105 · 2m47y Goo 158 · below its mark03/07/2025 · OR 105 par3/074OR 1053 @ Cartmel 19/07/2025 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 106 · 2m1f46y Goo 152 · beat its mark19/07/2025 · OR 106 par3 @ Cartmel 23/08/2025 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 112 · 2m1f46y Gd 159 · beat its mark23/08/2025 · OR 112 par23/083OR 1123 @ Hexham 02/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 111 · 2m48y Gd 155 · below its mark02/05/2026 · OR 111 par3 @ Cartmel 23/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 109 · 2m1f46y Gd 155 · below its mark23/05/2026 · OR 109 par23/053OR 1093 @ Hexham 21/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 108 · 2m48y Gd 155 · below its mark21/06/2026 · OR 108 par3 @ Cartmel 18/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 108 · 2m1f46y Gd 151 · beat its mark18/07/2026 · OR 108 par18/073OR 108projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-18Cartmel32nd2nd0
2026-06-21Hexham33rd3rd0
2026-05-23Cartmel35th5th0
2026-05-02Hexham34th4th0
2026-04-23Perth4−1
2025-10-03Hexham30

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today28/0519/0723/0518/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 7100% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength87%

Delivery trend -3.9% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 7. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
28/05/20251st8/158%100%+0.42
14/06/20251st7/163%100%+0.37
03/07/20252nd13/266%83%+0.18
19/07/20251st15/261%100%+0.39
23/08/20252nd4/179%88%+0.09
02/05/20264th33/10%40%+0.40
23/05/20265th16/116%56%+0.40
21/06/20263rd15/261%50%-0.11
18/07/20262nd7/282%90%+0.08