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4

Ballynoe Boy

6yo Gelding · 11-6 · OR 102

Hexham · El Tel's 61 Racecourse's & Done Handicap Hurdle · 2m 4f 28y

#3

Rank

Odds

5/2

Win Prob

3%

Place Prob

11%

Rank

#3

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

In good hands and has got his act together over hurdles in recent starts, following up Market Rasen success in decisive fashion at Bangor (2½m) last time. The winner has franked that form since, though likely requires another career best to make it a hat-trick.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.

Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 4.4)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 4
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Perth 24/09/2025 · Pos 9th of 11 · OR - · 2m47y Goo 15424/0944 @ Hexham 11/10/2025 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR - · 2m48y Gd 1564 @ Kelso 25/10/2025 · Pos 8th of 14 · OR - · 2m51y Goo 15825/1045 @ Doncaster 28/11/2025 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 96 · 2m3f88y Goo 165 · below its mark28/11/2025 · OR 96 par5 @ Market Rasen 26/12/2025 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 94 · 2m4f139y GS 162 · below its mark26/12/2025 · OR 94 par26/125OR 945 @ Uttoxeter 13/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR 93 · 2m3f207y Gd 165 · below its mark13/06/2026 · OR 93 par5 @ Cartmel 28/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 91 · 2m6f31y Goo 162 · below its mark28/06/2026 · OR 91 par28/065OR 915 @ Market Rasen 15/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 89 · 2m2f140y Gd 153 · beat its mark15/08/2026 · OR 89 par5 @ Bangor-on-Dee 04/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 94 · 2m3f123y Gd 162 · beat its mark04/09/2026 · OR 94 par4/095OR 94projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-04Bangor-on-Dee51st2nd−1
2026-08-15Market Rasen51st2nd−1
2026-06-28Cartmel54th5th−1
2026-06-13Uttoxeter57th8th−1
2025-12-26Market Rasen53rd4th−1
2025-11-28Doncaster54th5th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today24/0928/1128/064/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1089% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▬
Strength100%

Delivery trend -1.1% per run

What the projection says

Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 2nd of 10.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
24/09/20259th33/10%20%+0.20
11/10/20256th33/10%29%+0.29
25/10/20258th50/10%46%+0.46
28/11/20254th8/158%73%+0.15
26/12/20253rd9/276%78%+0.01
13/06/20267th5/174%45%-0.28
28/06/20264th12/137%67%+0.30
15/08/20261st7/163%100%+0.37
04/09/20261st3/184%100%+0.16