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Coded Welder

7yo Gelding · 12-1 · OR 111

Hexham · El Tel's 61 Racecourse's & Done Handicap Hurdle · 2m 4f 28y

#5

Rank

Odds

3/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

3%

Rank

#5

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Strong in the betting all 5 runs for current yard this season. Ran up to his best when 3¾-length third behind a less-exposed pair in Downpatrick maiden latest (2¾m). Shrewd Irish yard has had only one previous Hexham runner (3rd in 2022/23). Has to be on the shortlist with Sean Bowen booked.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲6
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 11.5 /10 (raw 5.1)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C10.2
Today: 4
Class gap: -6.2
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Galway 30/07/2025 · Pos 3rd of 16 · OR - · 2m6f Gd 16630/07C8C8 @ Downpatrick 10/08/2025 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 110 · 2m5f180y Goo 158 · below its mark10/08/2025 · OR 110 parC8 @ Navan 06/12/2025 · Pos 13th of 26 · OR 109 · 2m Sft 166 · below its mark06/12/2025 · OR 109 par6/12C8OR 109BHA107 @ Limerick 27/12/2025 · Pos 10th of 11 · OR 107 · 2m4f Hvy 165 · below its mark27/12/2025 · OR 107 parBHA105 @ Cork 10/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 15 · OR 105 · 2m3f50y Goo 161 · below its mark10/05/2026 · OR 105 par10/05105OR 105BHA108 @ Clonmel 05/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 16 · OR 108 · 2m3f61y Goo 165 · below its mark05/06/2026 · OR 108 parBHA108 @ Galway 29/07/2026 · Pos 8th of 19 · OR 108 · 2m6f Gd 164 · below its mark29/07/2026 · OR 108 par29/07108OR 108C0 @ Tramore 13/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR - · 2m5f180y Gd 166C8 @ Downpatrick 31/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 108 · 2m5f180y Gd 158 · below its mark31/08/2026 · OR 108 par31/08C8OR 108projClass-projected finish: 10th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-31Downpatrick?3rd8th−4
2026-08-13Tramore?5th5th0
2026-07-29GalwayBHA1088th16th−7
2026-06-05ClonmelBHA1084th12th−7
2026-05-10CorkBHA1052nd10th−7
2025-12-27LimerickBHA10710th18th−7

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today30/0727/1229/0731/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1067% of fieldRange 3-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength49%

Delivery trend -7.3% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 10. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
30/07/20253rd12/137%87%+0.50
10/08/20253rd11/893%60%-0.33
06/12/202513th66/10%52%+0.52
27/12/202510th28/10%10%+0.10
10/05/20262nd10/382%93%+0.10
05/06/20264th9/488%80%-0.08
29/07/20268th4/179%61%-0.18
13/08/20265th3/184%50%-0.34
31/08/20263rd1/195%75%-0.20