7
Final Straw
6yo Gelding · 11-4 · OR 100
Hexham · El Tel's 61 Racecourse's & Done Handicap Hurdle · 2m 4f 28y
#9
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 3.7)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.5
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-04 | Wincanton | 5 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2025-11-17 | Plumpton | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-11-10 | Kempton | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-09-07 | Fontwell | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-07-25 | Uttoxeter | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-06-09 | Southwell | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1022% of fieldRange 4-10 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength19%
Delivery trend -2.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/06/2025 | 4th | 11/4 | 86% | 57% | -0.28 |
| 25/07/2025 | 6th | 3/1 | 84% | 44% | -0.40 |
| 07/09/2025 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 57% | -0.03 |
| 10/11/2025 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 17/11/2025 | 1st | 10/11 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 04/12/2025 | 6th | 2/1 | 89% | 17% | -0.73 |