1
Scottish Dancer
7yo Gelding · 12-0 · OR 100
Hexham · Heath RUFC A-Safe Handicap Hurdle · 2m 7f 63y
#2
Rank
Odds
13/8
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
7%
Rank
#2
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength36%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.5
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Bangor-on-Dee | 5 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-17 | Ripon | 4 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-05-28 | Worcester | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-17 | Ripon | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-02 | Thirsk | 5 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-10-18 | Limerick | BHA89 | 13th | 18th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 575% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▼
Strength96%
Delivery trend -3.0% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 2nd of 5. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/09/2024 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 93% | +0.14 |
| 05/08/2025 | 14th | 22/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 02/10/2025 | 8th | 18/1 | 5% | 46% | +0.41 |
| 18/10/2025 | 13th | 28/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 02/05/2026 | 1st | 33/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 17/05/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 80% | -0.04 |
| 28/05/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 75% | -0.04 |
| 17/06/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 20% | -0.33 |
| 08/09/2026 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |