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5

Illogical Logic

8yo Gelding · 11-0 · OR 84

Hexham · Davey Liddle Belated Birthday Handicap Chase · 2m 4f 15y

#3

Rank

Odds

6/5

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#3

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Went one better than he had on his final outing for Christian Williams to provide his owner with a second success in 11-runner handicap chase at Cartmel (21f, good) just under 5 weeks ago. Very well treated on his best form from 3 lb higher so could well follow up.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength2%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 3.8)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 5
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Newton Abbot 24/06/2025 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 93 · 3m1f170y Goo 168 · below its mark24/06/2025 · OR 93 par24/065OR 935 @ Windsor 23/11/2025 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 90 · 3m60y Goo 153 · beat its mark23/11/2025 · OR 90 par5 @ Hereford 12/01/2026 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 90 · 3m1f44y Goo 158 · beat its mark12/01/2026 · OR 90 par12/015OR 904 @ Ffos Las 30/01/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 90 · 2m7f177y Hvy 151 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark30/01/2026 · OR 90 par5 @ Plumpton 16/03/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 90 · 3m1f157y Goo 160 · below its mark16/03/2026 · OR 90 par16/035OR 905 @ Taunton 09/04/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 88 · 2m7f3y Gd 156 · below its mark09/04/2026 · OR 88 par5 @ Newton Abbot 23/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 83 · 3m1f170y Goo 159 · below its mark23/06/2026 · OR 83 par23/065OR 835 @ Stratford 20/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 81 · 3m3f119y GF 149 · beat its mark20/08/2026 · OR 81 par5 @ Cartmel 29/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 81 · 2m5f34y Goo 154 · beat its mark29/08/2026 · OR 81 par29/085OR 81projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 5
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-29Cartmel51st1st0
2026-08-20Stratford52nd2nd0
2026-06-23Newton Abbot55th5th0
2026-04-19Stratford50
2026-04-09Taunton56th6th0
2026-03-16Plumpton54th4th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today24/0630/0123/0629/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 550% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength100%

Delivery trend +1.8% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 3rd of 5.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
24/06/20253rd6/492%71%-0.21
23/11/20252nd15/261%83%+0.23
12/01/20262nd5/174%90%+0.16
30/01/20263rd8/158%67%+0.09
16/03/20264th11/271%50%-0.21
09/04/20266th8/158%17%-0.41
23/06/20265th8/158%50%-0.08
20/08/20262nd13/266%80%+0.14
29/08/20261st7/163%100%+0.37