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Jack Doyen

10yo Gelding · 11-4 · OR 88

Hexham · Davey Liddle Belated Birthday Handicap Chase · 2m 4f 15y

#2

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#2

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Had been one to treat with caution but gained a third win from last 4 starts at Huntingdon (2½m, good) in May. Unseated his rider after 3 months off at Stratford in August and possibly still needed the outing back there (23f, good to firm) last month. Handicapper drops him 2 lb.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength17%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.0 /10 (raw 3.7)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 5
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Warwick 31/12/2024 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 82 · 2m4f Sft 145 · beat its mark31/12/2024 · OR 82 par31/125OR 825 @ Hereford 10/12/2025 · Pos 6th of 13 · OR 81 · 2m4f194y GS 149 · beat its mark10/12/2025 · OR 81 par5 @ Wincanton 25/02/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 76 · 2m4f35y Goo 145 · beat its mark25/02/2026 · OR 76 par25/025OR 765 @ Leicester 06/03/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 76 · 2m4f25y Goo 150 · beat its mark06/03/2026 · OR 76 par5 @ Hereford 25/03/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 73 · 2m4f194y Goo 142 · beat its mark25/03/2026 · OR 73 par25/035OR 735 @ Newton Abbot 04/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 79 · 2m4f216y Goo 148 · beat its mark04/04/2026 · OR 79 par5 @ Hexham 02/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 13 · OR 83 · 2m4f15y Gd 151 · beat its mark02/05/2026 · OR 83 par2/055OR 835 @ Huntingdon 19/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 85 · 2m3f189y Goo 164 · beat its mark19/05/2026 · OR 85 par5 @ Stratford 05/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 90 · 2m6f125y Goo 160 · below its mark05/09/2026 · OR 90 par5/095OR 90projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 5
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-05Stratford55th5th0
2026-08-25Stratford50
2026-05-19Huntingdon51st1st0
2026-05-02Hexham52nd2nd0
2026-04-04Newton Abbot51st1st0
2026-03-25Hereford51st1st0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today31/126/032/055/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 575% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength100%

Delivery trend +1.5% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 5.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
31/12/20243rd7/163%67%+0.04
10/12/20256th16/116%58%+0.43
25/02/20265th12/137%50%+0.13
06/03/20263rd17/255%50%-0.05
25/03/20261st9/153%100%+0.47
04/04/20261st5/174%100%+0.26
02/05/20262nd14/126%92%+0.65
19/05/20261st11/486%100%+0.14
05/09/20265th11/142%56%+0.13