Kinbara Firstdraft
7yo Gelding · 11-6 · OR 90
Hexham · Davey Liddle Belated Birthday Handicap Chase · 2m 4f 15y
#4
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 5 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 5.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-29 | Sedgefield | 4 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-09-07 | Perth | 4 | 9th | 8th | +1 |
| 2026-08-29 | Cartmel | 5 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-15 | Perth | 3 | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2026-07-12 | Perth | 4 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-07-02 | Perth | 4 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +4.7% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 5. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/02/2026 | 4th | 17/2 | 55% | 40% | -0.15 |
| 14/05/2026 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 20% | -0.41 |
| 07/06/2026 | 7th | 66/1 | 0% | 45% | +0.45 |
| 02/07/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 40% | -0.31 |
| 12/07/2026 | 5th | 22/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 15/08/2026 | 4th | 40/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 29/08/2026 | 6th | 40/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 07/09/2026 | 9th | 33/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 29/09/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |