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6

Ballydangan

9yo Gelding · 10-2 · OR 74

Hexham · Lee 'Bazza' Jenkinson Memorial Handicap Chase · 3m 41y

#5

Rank

Odds

33/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#5

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Is now operating from a 4 lb lower than when winning last year's renewal but has shaped with little recent encouragement, backing out of things concerningly quickly at Perth on most recent outing.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength35%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 7.0)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.8
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Newcastle 05/04/2025 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR 80 · 2m4f62y Gd 148 · below its mark05/04/2025 · OR 80 par5/045OR 805 @ Hexham 14/04/2025 · Pos 3rd of 14 · OR 77 · 3m41y Goo 145 · beat its mark14/04/2025 · OR 77 par5 @ Hexham 07/06/2025 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 77 · 2m4f15y Goo 143 · beat its mark07/06/2025 · OR 77 par7/065OR 775 @ Hexham 14/06/2025 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 76 · 3m41y Goo 146 · beat its mark14/06/2025 · OR 76 par5 @ Perth 03/07/2025 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 78 · 2m7f180y Goo 144 · beat its mark03/07/2025 · OR 78 par3/075OR 785 @ Hexham 03/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 78 · 3m41y GS 148 · beat its mark03/10/2025 · OR 78 par4 @ Hexham 11/10/2025 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 85 · 3m41y Gd 142 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark11/10/2025 · OR 85 par11/104OR 855 @ Sedgefield 19/02/2026 · Pos 4th of 5 · OR 83 · 3m2f59y Sft 157 · below its mark19/02/2026 · OR 83 par5 @ Perth 15/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 78 · 2m7f180y Gd 146 · below its mark15/08/2026 · OR 78 par15/085OR 78projClass-projected finish: 5th of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-15Perth57th7th0
2026-03-19Sedgefield50
2026-02-19Sedgefield54th4th0
2025-12-28Catterick50
2025-10-11Hexham44th3rd+1
2025-10-03Hexham51st1st0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today5/0414/0611/1015/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 70% of fieldRange 6-8 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -7.6% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 7th of 7. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
05/04/20259th150/10%11%+0.11
14/04/20253rd100/10%85%+0.85
07/06/20253rd16/116%82%+0.66
14/06/20251st5/174%100%+0.26
03/07/20253rd8/158%80%+0.22
03/10/20251st14/126%100%+0.74
11/10/20254th9/276%57%-0.19
19/02/20264th12/137%25%-0.12
15/08/20267th25/10%0%0.00