Croagh Patrick
11yo Gelding · 10-2 · OR 72
Hexham · Lee 'Bazza' Jenkinson Memorial Handicap Chase · 3m 41y
#4
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 4.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Sedgefield | 5 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-28 | Sedgefield | 5 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-28 | Cartmel | 5 | 0 | ||
| 2026-06-13 | Hexham | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-23 | Cartmel | 5 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-03-13 | Hexham | 5 | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +3.5% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/10/2024 | 6th | 15/2 | 61% | 44% | -0.16 |
| 31/10/2024 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 17% | +0.01 |
| 01/12/2024 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 92% | +0.65 |
| 15/12/2024 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 03/02/2025 | 9th | 11/1 | 42% | 43% | +0.01 |
| 23/05/2026 | 7th | 28/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 13/06/2026 | 2nd | 33/1 | 0% | 83% | +0.83 |
| 28/08/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 14/09/2026 | 5th | 22/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |