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3

Deadheat

13yo Gelding · 10-11 · OR 83

Hexham · Lee 'Bazza' Jenkinson Memorial Handicap Chase · 3m 41y

#7

Rank

Odds

2/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#7

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Veteran who has been very lightly raced in recent seasons and made his first impact for a while fitted with headgear when third at Kilbeggan (3¼m, good to soft) 6 weeks ago. 5 lb higher on return to British soil but still enters the reckoning.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲2
Strength10%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 8.7 /10 (raw 5.3)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.7
Today: 5
Class gap: -1.7
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA121 @ Galway 30/10/2022 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR 121 · 2m6f111y Sft 157 · below its mark30/10/2022 · OR 121 par30/10121OR 121BHA120 @ Navan 12/02/2023 · Pos 8th of 17 · OR 120 · 3m Goo 163 · below its mark12/02/2023 · OR 120 parC9 @ Wexford 11/08/2023 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR 116 · 2m Yie 168 · below its mark11/08/2023 · OR 116 par11/08C9OR 116BHA111 @ Galway 11/09/2023 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 111 · 2m6f111y Sft 156 · below its mark11/09/2023 · OR 111 parBHA105 @ Punchestown 11/10/2023 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR 105 · 2m7f60y Yie 168 · below its mark11/10/2023 · OR 105 par11/10105OR 1054 @ Hexham 23/06/2024 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 100 · 2m4f15y Gd 159 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark23/06/2024 · OR 100 par5 @ Perth 23/04/2025 · Pos 9th of 11 · OR 95 · 2m7f207y GS 161 · below its mark23/04/2025 · OR 95 par23/045OR 95BHA80 @ Wexford 03/07/2026 · Pos 10th of 13 · OR 80 · 2m3f110y Gd 148 · below its mark03/07/2026 · OR 80 parBHA78 @ Kilbeggan 21/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 14 · OR 78 · 3m1f180y Goo 148 · below its mark21/08/2026 · OR 78 par21/0878OR 78projClass-projected finish: 6th of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-21KilbegganBHA783rd6th−3
2026-07-03WexfordBHA8010th14th−3
2025-07-21Cartmel50
2025-04-23Perth59th9th0
2024-06-23Hexham47th6th+1
2024-01-24FairyhouseBHA103−5

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today30/1011/0923/0421/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 717% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +6.9% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 7. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
30/10/20228th7/163%30%-0.33
12/02/20238th33/10%56%+0.56
11/08/202310th33/10%0%0.00
11/09/20236th28/10%29%+0.29
11/10/20237th22/10%33%+0.33
23/06/20247th40/10%25%+0.25
23/04/20259th50/10%20%+0.20
03/07/202610th50/10%25%+0.25
21/08/20263rd40/10%85%+0.85