Lights Are Green
9yo Gelding · 10-11 · OR 83
Hexham · Lee 'Bazza' Jenkinson Memorial Handicap Chase · 3m 41y
#3
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 3.7)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-18 | Cartmel | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-06 | Hexham | 4 | +1 | ||
| 2026-05-23 | Cartmel | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-10-19 | Sedgefield | 4 | +1 | ||
| 2025-08-16 | Perth | 5 | 0 | ||
| 2025-07-19 | Cartmel | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +8.1% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/06/2024 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 75% | -0.01 |
| 30/06/2024 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 67% | -0.15 |
| 20/07/2024 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 26/10/2024 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 20% | -0.41 |
| 08/11/2024 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 38% | -0.10 |
| 03/05/2025 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 19/07/2025 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 63% | +0.26 |
| 23/05/2026 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 75% | +0.75 |
| 18/07/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 67% | +0.30 |