8
Stay Hopeful
6yo Gelding · 10-2 · OR 72
Hexham · Lee 'Bazza' Jenkinson Memorial Handicap Chase · 3m 41y
#6
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength43%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 6.6)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.5
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-16 | Worcester | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-06 | Worcester | 5 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-28 | Worcester | 5 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-16 | Uttoxeter | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-12-27 | Chepstow | 3 | 9th | 7th | +2 |
| 2025-12-19 | Uttoxeter | 4 | 9th | 8th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 733% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength84%
Delivery trend -1.2% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 5th of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/11/2025 | 8th | 10/1 | 47% | 36% | -0.11 |
| 19/12/2025 | 9th | 80/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 27/12/2025 | 9th | 200/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 16/05/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 73% | -0.01 |
| 28/05/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 38% | +0.11 |
| 06/06/2026 | 7th | 11/1 | 42% | 40% | -0.02 |
| 16/07/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 71% | -0.05 |