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Super Citizen

12yo Gelding · 12-0 · OR 100

Hexham · Lee 'Bazza' Jenkinson Memorial Handicap Chase · 3m 41y

#1

Rank

Odds

7/2

Win Prob

42%

Place Prob

43%

Rank

#1

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Held his form well after opening his account for the season at Carlisle (3¼m) in November, but he's his yard's first runner in 6 months, so fitness could be an issue (well held on last autumn's comeback run).

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength55%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.4 /10 (raw 4.7)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.7
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Kelso 22/04/2025 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 100 · 2m7f96y Gd 158 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark22/04/2025 · OR 100 par22/044OR 1005 @ Hexham 03/05/2025 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 100 · 3m41y Goo 168 · below its mark03/05/2025 · OR 100 par5 @ Cartmel 24/05/2025 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR 100 · 3m1f107y Gd 168 · below its mark24/05/2025 · OR 100 par24/055OR 1005 @ Sedgefield 08/10/2025 · Pos 4th of 4 · OR 99 · 3m2f59y Goo 168 · below its mark08/10/2025 · OR 99 par5 @ Carlisle 30/11/2025 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 98 · 3m2f19y Sft 161 · beat its mark30/11/2025 · OR 98 par30/115OR 984 @ Kelso 29/12/2025 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 103 · 3m2f39y Goo 157 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark29/12/2025 · OR 103 par5 @ Carlisle 03/02/2026 · Pos 3rd of 14 · OR 101 · 3m110y Goo 164 · below its mark03/02/2026 · OR 101 par3/025OR 1014 @ Carlisle 08/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 101 · 3m110y Goo 149 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark08/03/2026 · OR 101 par5 @ Carlisle 04/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 100 · 3m110y Goo 168 · below its mark04/04/2026 · OR 100 par4/045OR 100projClass-projected finish: 1st of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-04-04Carlisle53rd3rd0
2026-03-08Carlisle42nd1st+1
2026-02-03Carlisle53rd3rd0
2025-12-29Kelso44th3rd+1
2025-11-30Carlisle51st1st0
2025-10-08Sedgefield54th4th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today22/048/103/024/04
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 7100% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +3.1% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 7. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
22/04/20252nd7/282%86%+0.04
03/05/20258th11/271%22%-0.49
24/05/20255th20/10%64%+0.64
08/10/20254th4/179%0%-0.79
30/11/20251st14/126%100%+0.74
29/12/20254th12/137%40%+0.03
03/02/20263rd11/142%85%+0.43
08/03/20262nd11/271%83%+0.12
04/04/20263rd11/271%67%-0.04