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5

Uncle Al

7yo Gelding · 10-10 · OR 82

Hexham · Lee 'Bazza' Jenkinson Memorial Handicap Chase · 3m 41y

#2

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

57%

Place Prob

50%

Rank

#2

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Prone to jumping errors but avoided mistakes when taking advantage of his reduced mark in 4-runner contest at Huntingdon (3m) in May and returned to a similar level when second of 5 at Sedgefield (3¼m)18 days ago. Strikes as the type to be suited by this track and merits consideration.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength18%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 4.8)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 5
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Market Rasen 26/11/2025 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 83 · 2m5f89y Goo 154 · below its mark26/11/2025 · OR 83 par26/115OR 835 @ Sedgefield 05/12/2025 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 83 · 2m5f28y Sft 152 · beat its mark05/12/2025 · OR 83 par5 @ Catterick 28/12/2025 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 85 · 2m3f51y Gd 154 · below its mark28/12/2025 · OR 85 par28/125OR 855 @ Sedgefield 25/01/2026 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR 85 · 3m2f59y Goo 149 · below its mark25/01/2026 · OR 85 par5 @ Fakenham 13/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 3 · OR 84 · 3m38y Goo 157 · below its mark13/03/2026 · OR 84 par13/035OR 845 @ Huntingdon 25/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 4 · OR 81 · 2m7f129y Goo 149 · beat its mark25/05/2026 · OR 81 par5 @ Uttoxeter 24/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 14 · OR 83 · 3m10y Gd 151 · beat its mark24/07/2026 · OR 83 par24/075OR 835 @ Market Rasen 15/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 83 · 2m5f89y Gd 151 · beat its mark15/08/2026 · OR 83 par5 @ Sedgefield 14/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 82 · 3m2f59y Goo 155 · beat its mark14/09/2026 · OR 82 par14/095OR 82projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-14Sedgefield52nd2nd0
2026-08-28Sedgefield50
2026-08-15Market Rasen53rd3rd0
2026-07-24Uttoxeter56th6th0
2026-05-25Huntingdon51st1st0
2026-05-14Perth50

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today26/1125/0124/0714/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 767% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength74%

Delivery trend -0.1% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 7.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
26/11/20255th14/126%33%+0.07
05/12/20251st17/255%100%+0.45
28/12/20256th14/126%17%-0.10
25/01/20266th10/147%50%+0.03
13/03/20262nd7/163%50%-0.13
25/05/20261st14/126%100%+0.74
24/07/20266th16/116%62%+0.46
15/08/20263rd8/158%60%+0.02
14/09/20262nd10/382%75%-0.07