Belle Ofthe Dance

4yo Filly · 8-9 · OR 84

Keeneland · Race 1 - Starter Allowance · 7f

#10

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

#10

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▬

Strength13%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 2 higher-class runs.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.1 /10 (raw 5.4)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.6

Today:

Class gap: -0.1

Higher-class runs: 2

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-09-10	Churchill Downs	?	4th	4th	0	6.0
2026-07-10	Ellis Park	?	1st	2nd	−1	7.8
2026-05-31	Churchill Downs	?	6th	7th	−1	2.8
2026-04-28	Churchill Downs	?	3rd	4th	−1	5.8
2026-03-15	Laurel Park	?	7th	5th	+2	4.8
2025-12-13	Aqueduct	?	9th	8th	+1	2.2

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish9th of 1120% of fieldRange 4-11 · 68%

▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price

Trend▼

Strength36%

Delivery trend -3.3% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 11. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
11/07/2025	1st	13/2	66%	100%	+0.34
07/09/2025	10th	14/1	26%	10%	-0.16
08/10/2025	6th	16/1	16%	29%	+0.13
13/12/2025	9th	14/1	26%	0%	-0.26
15/03/2026	7th	25/1	0%	14%	+0.14
28/04/2026	3rd	9/2	76%	67%	-0.10
31/05/2026	6th	9/4	88%	17%	-0.71
10/07/2026	1st	2/1	89%	100%	+0.11
10/09/2026	4th	10/1	47%	50%	+0.03