1
Heartbeat
4yo Filly · 8-9 · OR 85
Keeneland · Race 1 - Starter Allowance · 7f
#9
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.4
Today:
Class gap: +0.1
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | Churchill Downs | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-08-21 | Ellis Park | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-07-12 | Ellis Park | ? | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2026-06-14 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-23 | Churchill Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-28 | Churchill Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1110% of fieldRange 10-11 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -10.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 10th of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/06/2025 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 27/02/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 25% | -0.51 |
| 22/03/2026 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 50% | -0.16 |
| 28/04/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 86% | +0.12 |
| 23/05/2026 | 2nd | 11/8 | 93% | 86% | -0.07 |
| 14/06/2026 | 1st | 8/13 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 12/07/2026 | 5th | 10/3 | 82% | 20% | -0.62 |
| 21/08/2026 | 7th | 6/4 | 92% | 0% | -0.92 |
| 10/09/2026 | 7th | 10/3 | 82% | 0% | -0.82 |