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4

Hollybygolly

3yo Filly · 8-6 · OR 68

Keeneland · Race 1 - Starter Allowance · 7f

#6

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

3%

Place Prob

8%

Rank

#6

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼2
Strength83%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 6 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.1 /10 (raw 5.6)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.0
Today:
Class gap: +1.5
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Ellis Park 05/07/2025 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR - · 1m Fm 119 · HIGHER CLASS5/07C6C6 @ Ellis Park 03/08/2025 · Pos 12th of 12 · OR 55 · 1m110y Fm 119 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark03/08/2025 · OR 55 parC9 @ Turfway Park 09/01/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 44 · 6f Fas 120 · beat its mark09/01/2026 · OR 44 par9/01C9OR 44C5 @ Turfway Park 08/02/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 59 · 6f110y 118 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark08/02/2026 · OR 59 parC6 @ Turfway Park 04/03/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 73 · 1m 118 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark04/03/2026 · OR 73 par4/03C6OR 73C0 @ Keeneland 03/04/2026 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 85 · 1m110y 121 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark03/04/2026 · OR 85 parC0 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 13/05/2026 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR - · 1m Fm 12313/05C?C7 @ Churchill Downs 10/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 68 · 6f Gd 118 · below its mark10/09/2026 · OR 68 par10/09C7OR 68projClass-projected finish: 7th of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-10Churchill Downs?5th5th0
2026-05-13Horseshoe Indianapolis?10th10th0
2026-04-03Keeneland?6th-2th+6
2026-03-04Turfway Park?1st0th+1
2026-02-08Turfway Park?2nd0th+2
2026-01-09Turfway Park?1st3rd−2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today5/078/0213/0510/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1160% of fieldRange 2-10 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength50%

Delivery trend -2.2% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 11. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
05/07/20258th6/168%30%-0.38
03/08/202512th25/10%0%0.00
09/01/20261st13/266%100%+0.34
08/02/20262nd14/126%80%+0.54
04/03/20261st11/1094%100%+0.06
03/04/20266th33/10%0%0.00
13/05/202610th40/10%0%0.00
10/09/20265th9/276%33%-0.43