5
Lady Pippa
4yo Filly · 8-9 · OR 75
Keeneland · Race 1 - Starter Allowance · 7f
#11
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength19%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 5.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-10 | Ellis Park | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-04-12 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-03-20 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-02-22 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-12-28 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2025-11-21 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 110% of fieldRange 7-11 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -5.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 11th of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/07/2025 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 50% | -0.29 |
| 07/08/2025 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 17/10/2025 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 21/11/2025 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 28/12/2025 | 3rd | 33/1 | 0% | 71% | +0.71 |
| 22/02/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 20/03/2026 | 8th | 5/1 | 74% | 0% | -0.74 |
| 12/04/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 67% | +0.19 |
| 10/07/2026 | 5th | 3/1 | 84% | 0% | -0.84 |